(When it comes to stopping climate change before catastrophic changes)

It’s probably going to happen in your lifetime. They used to say 30 years in the future, but it’s accelerating, and there is not enough being done to stop it. A 10 year horizon is in play.

I’m not saying this to scare you. I’m not saying this to commiserate in sadness. If you need to mourn, I understand. But the reason I’m saying this is so we can think about what we’re going to do now and what we’re doing to prepare for when it happens.

I’m not talking about Prepping(tm). You won’t be fighting off a powdery white desert cult with your sawed-off shotgun and sniper rifle. Nor does this end with a zombie apocalypse. That’s right, put down your AR15. You’re not going to have to gun down a mob coming for your cellar of canned goods. You’re not going to emerge to restart human civilization from your bunker. All these examples are ahistorical.*

I’ll confess, I am not immune to being influenced by popular culture myself: thanks to Jean Claude Van Damme, I’ve always been inspired to work on my kicks and exercise. But in the same way I’ve never had the opportunity to round house kick my way out of a human safari, post-apocalyptic fiction is also not a good guide for preparing for the future.

So let’s talk about what is going to happen and what to do about it:

What’s going to happen?

The climate is changing

• Droughts will get worse. Floods will get worse.
• Extreme weather will become harder to predict.
• Farmers will not be able to plan, crops will be decimated by unpredictable extreme weather.
• This cute prediction tool by National Geographic was published in 2020, but their projections for 2070 look more like the reality for 2021.

Thus, we will need technology to keep everyone alive

• More people will need heating and air conditioning. For some, air conditioning will become a matter of survival instead of comfort.
• We’re going to need more efficient heating and cooling, indoor farms, air filters.
• We’re going to need water. Recycling technology (industry), conservation (agriculture), desalination/condensation (consumption).

Thus, we’re going to need a huge, HUGE amount of alternative energy

• We’re going to need more energy than ever before to control our environments.
• At the same time, public opinion (for good reason) will finally shift to the point that the fossil fuel industry will collapse.

Those without access to crucial technology be hit the hardest

• Cue social and political unrest.
• Climate refugees are at this point unavoidable. It’s already started
• For those in U.S., food costs will increase, while more of the world will see outright famine.

Personal actions you can take now to protect you and your family:

Have a plan for possible environmental disasters in your area

• Has a disaster such as flooding happened in your area before? Or did it just happen to a neighboring town? Well, things are going to get much, much worse.
• When it comes to immediate survival, have a plan for when evacuation or shelter in place is necessary. Basic disaster preparation includes (but is not limited to): 2 weeks food & water, organized bug-out packs, meet up plan, evacuation route.
• Be conservative (with your life). Don’t wait for an evacuation order. Precedence is how we and your governments make these decisions, choose to recognize that we will live in unprecedented times.
• Keep your travel documents up to date.
• Have people you can count on and a way to contact them.

Now that your butt is saved, let’s consider your financial health

• Buy insurance for your home/belongings to cover disasters such as flooding or forest fires.
• If insurance won’t cover a hazard in your area, then it might be high enough risk to consider moving.
• Have an emergency fund.

Have a plan for possible political unrest (war) in your area

• It’s… actually about the same as an environmental disaster.
• With the caveat of the importance of information. Having good information will help you evacuate and avoid danger.

Personal actions you can take now to prepare your society (by your wallets, your votes, and your time):

Support carbon reduction efforts and building a post carbon economy

• Yes, some of the worst is already likely to come to pass. But if we can’t dramatically reduce carbon emissions at SOME point, what might be a death toll of hundreds of thousands will instead be billions.
• The economic environment will change as well. You can build for the future economy or be left behind when public opinion fully turns against your way of life.

Invest in alternative energy

• It needs to get cheap and plentiful
• Storage needs to be robust
• Nuclear fission has its advantages, but is dependent on large cool bodies of water. The coasts are no longer suitable for “permanent” installations considering sea level rise and the enhancement of storms.

Build the right infrastructure

• California, Taiwan, Israel, India are just some examples of places that are going to need better water infrastructure (recycling, conservation, desalination/condensation)
• Prepare coastal cities for sea level rise
• Prepare towns in the forest or next to rivers. Consider risks before building new ones.

Support research and development for vital technological gaps

• Environmental stewardship and control
• Energy generation
• Energy storage
• Fresh water sourcing, conservation
• Heating and cooling efficiency
• Indoor farming, drought resistant crops

Do I hear you asking, “Wait, but you didn’t tell us how to stop climate change”? You would be correct, I didn’t. The focus on this thought exercise was on how to prepare for it. This problem is too big for any individual change in habit to make a difference. (Okay, except maybe forgoing meat) So, the best bet for those in capitalistic democracies is to vote, volunteer and donate.

I made the case that popular fiction was a lazy and inaccurate basis for preparing for the future. But that doesn’t mean we can’t lift inspiration from it. If this article has made you sad, I leave you with the words of Bobbie Draper from The Expanse:

I sobbed for hours… and then I stopped, and then a few hours after that, I was just tired. No matter how traumatic the loss is, you only have so much emotional stamina, even grief gets used up…

I went through the exact same thing you’re going through right now, and when you’re on the other side of this, you’re going to want to be doing something that matters.

Footnote:

*Let’s assume you live in a “Western” nation. Even in times of famine and political upheaval, there has not been a time where the general public descended as a mob to murder people in residential neighborhoods. Horrible wars? Yes. Bands of soldiers or deserters pillaging townships? Yes. But in those scenarios, a loner with a gun is a minor threat yet a priority target. The best bet would be to move quickly to somewhere stable, not to hunker down in a warzone with freeze dried chicken bits.

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